Surveys with conflicting outcomes
by C A Saliya


There was a survey on the next presidential election conducted by an Indian firm-Viplav Communications Pvt Ltd during January 6-13. They say the sample size is 10,225 and forecast “The poll shows Rajapaksa (MR) leading in all provinces other than the Tamil-dominated north and multi-racial east and enjoying a 12 percent lead over his opponent in the island as a whole.”
I got two feedbacks from two prominent personalities in Sri Lanka on this survey;


Response 1: “Cannot go by Indian survey as it is, because most people who have changed their minds after PC elections do not reveal the change unless the one who is interviewed is personally known to the officer carrying out the survey, due to sheer fear. Environment is so bad, the govt. sources take revenge at slightest knowledge that someone is in favour of SF. Therefore my understanding is that SF will win provided election/polling is carried out fairly without ridging votes, which hardly can be believed.”

Response 2: “That Indian outfit is well known and reputed. They will lose customers in India if they fudge data to support one side in tiny Sri Lanka. I would take non Lankan survey more seriously than any Lankan survey. Specially one by an outfit with a reputation to lose!” and he said MR will win.

Read further on http://www.groundviews.org/2010/01/20/surveys-with-conflicting-outcomes/